Produktbild: Risk Assessment

Risk Assessment Theory, Methods, and Applications

Aus der Reihe Statistics in Practice

171,99 €

inkl. gesetzl. MwSt., Versandkostenfrei


Beschreibung

Produktdetails

Einband

Gebundene Ausgabe

Erscheinungsdatum

16.04.2020

Verlag

John Wiley & Sons Inc

Seitenzahl

784

Maße (L/B/H)

23,2/15,9/4,3 cm

Gewicht

1021 g

Auflage

2. Auflage

Sprache

Englisch

ISBN

978-1-119-37723-8

Beschreibung

Produktdetails

Einband

Gebundene Ausgabe

Erscheinungsdatum

16.04.2020

Verlag

John Wiley & Sons Inc

Seitenzahl

784

Maße (L/B/H)

23,2/15,9/4,3 cm

Gewicht

1021 g

Auflage

2. Auflage

Sprache

Englisch

ISBN

978-1-119-37723-8

Herstelleradresse

Libri GmbH
Europaallee 1
36244 Bad Hersfeld
DE

Email: gpsr@libri.de

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  • Produktbild: Risk Assessment
  • Preface xiii

    Acknowledgments xvii

    About the Companion Site xix

    1 Introduction 1

    1.1 Risk in Our Modern Society 1

    1.2 Important Trends 2

    1.3 Major Accidents 4

    1.4 History of Risk Assessment 4

    1.5 Applications of Risk Assessment 9

    1.6 Objectives, Scope, and Delimitation 11

    1.7 Problems 12

    References 13

    2 The Words of Risk Analysis 15

    2.1 Introduction 15

    2.2 Risk 16

    2.3 What Can Go Wrong? 20

    2.4 What is the Likelihood? 38

    2.5 What are the Consequences? 44

    2.6 Additional Terms 49

    2.7 Problems 54

    References 56

    3 Main Elements of Risk Assessment 59

    3.1 Introduction 59

    3.2 Risk Assessment Process 60

    3.3 Risk Assessment Report 76

    3.4 Risk Assessment in Safety Legislation 81

    3.5 Validity and Quality Aspects of a Risk Assessment 82

    3.6 Problems 83

    References 84

    4 Study Object and Limitations 87

    4.1 Introduction 87

    4.2 Study Object 87

    4.3 Operating Context 91

    4.4 System Modeling and Analysis 92

    4.5 Complexity 95

    4.6 Problems 97

    References 98

    5 Risk Acceptance 99

    5.1 Introduction 99

    5.2 Risk Acceptance Criteria 99

    5.3 Approaches to Establishing Risk Acceptance Criteria 106

    5.4 Risk Acceptance Criteria for Other Assets than Humans 114

    5.5 Closure 115

    5.6 Problems 115

    References 117

    6 Measuring Risk 121

    6.1 Introduction 121

    6.2 Risk Metrics 121

    6.3 Measuring Risk to People 123

    6.4 Risk Matrices 148

    6.5 Reduction in Life Expectancy 154

    6.6 Choice and Use of Risk Metrics 156

    6.7 Risk Metrics for Other Assets 158

    6.8 Problems 159

    References 163

    7 Risk Management 167

    7.1 Introduction 167

    7.2 Scope, Context, and Criteria 170

    7.3 Risk Assessment 170

    7.4 Risk Treatment 171

    7.5 Communication and Consultation 172

    7.6 Monitoring and Review 173

    7.7 Recording and Reporting 174

    7.8 Stakeholders 175

    7.9 Risk and Decision-Making 176

    7.10 Safety Legislation 179

    7.11 Problems 180

    References 180

    8 Accident Models 183

    8.1 Introduction 183

    8.2 Accident Classification 183

    8.3 Accident Investigation 188

    8.4 Accident Causation 188

    8.5 Accident Models 190

    8.6 Energy and Barrier Models 193

    8.7 Sequential Accident Models 195

    8.8 Epidemiological Accident Models 201

    8.9 Event Causation and Sequencing Models 208

    8.10 Systemic Accident Models 213

    8.11 Combining Accident Models 228

    8.12 Problems 229

    References 230

    9 Data for Risk Analysis 235

    9.1 Types of Data 235

    9.2 Quality and Applicability of Data 238

    9.3 Data Sources 239

    9.4 Expert Judgment 250

    9.5 Data Dossier 254

    9.6 Problems 254

    References 257

    10 Hazard Identification 259

    10.1 Introduction 259

    10.2 Checklist Methods 263

    10.3 Preliminary Hazard Analysis 266

    10.4 Job Safety Analysis 278

    10.5 FMECA 287

    10.6 HAZOP 295

    10.7 STPA 306

    10.8 SWIFT 316

    10.9 Comparing Semiquantitative Methods 322

    10.10 Master Logic Diagram 322

    10.11 Change Analysis 324

    10.12 Hazard Log 327

    10.13 Problems 331

    References 335

    11 Causal and Frequency Analysis 339

    11.1 Introduction 339

    11.2 Cause and Effect Diagram Analysis 341

    11.3 Fault Tree Analysis 344

    11.4 Bayesian Networks 370

    11.5 Markov Methods 384

    11.6 Problems 396

    References 400

    12 Development of Accident Scenarios 401

    12.1 Introduction 401

    12.2 Event Tree Analysis 402

    12.3 Event Sequence Diagrams 426

    12.4 Cause-Consequence Analysis 426

    12.5 Hybrid Causal Logic 428

    12.6 Escalation Problems 429

    12.7 Consequence Models 429

    12.8 Problems 431

    References 435

    13 Dependent Failures and Events 437

    13.1 Introduction 437

    13.2 Dependent Failures and Events 437

    13.3 Dependency in Accident Scenarios 439

    13.4 Cascading Failures 441

    13.5 Common-Cause Failures 442

    13.6 ¿-Factor Model 452

    13.7 Binomial Failure Rate Model 456

    13.8 Multiple Greek Letter Model 457

    13.9 ¿-Factor Model 459

    13.10 Multiple ¿-Factor Model 461

    13.11 Problems 461

    References 462

    14 Barriers and Barrier Analysis 465

    14.1 Introduction 465

    14.2 Barriers and Barrier Classification 466

    14.3 Barrier Management 474

    14.4 Barrier Properties 476

    14.5 Safety-Instrumented Systems 477

    14.6 Hazard-Barrier Matrices 487

    14.7 Safety Barrier Diagrams 488

    14.8 Bow-Tie Diagrams 490

    14.9 Energy Flow/Barrier Analysis 490

    14.10 Layer of Protection Analysis 493

    14.11 Barrier and Operational Risk Analysis 502

    14.12 Systematic Identification and Evaluation of Risk Reduction Measures 512

    14.13 Problems 518

    References 520

    15 Human Reliability Analysis 525

    15.1 Introduction 525

    15.2 Task Analysis 536

    15.3 Human Error Identification 543

    15.4 HRA Methods 552

    15.5 Problems 573

    References 574

    16 Risk Analysis and Management for Operation 579

    16.1 Introduction 579

    16.2 Decisions About Risk 581

    16.3 Aspects of Risk to Consider 583

    16.4 Risk Indicators 585

    16.5 Risk Modeling 594

    16.6 Operational Risk Analysis - Updating the QRA 596

    16.7 MIRMAP 598

    16.8 Problems 601

    References 602

    17 Security Assessment 605

    17.1 Introduction 605

    17.2 Main Elements of Security Assessment 608

    17.3 Industrial Control and Safety Systems 615

    17.4 Security Assessment 617

    17.5 Security Assessment Methods 625

    17.6 Application Areas 626

    17.7 Problems 627

    References 628

    18 Life Cycle Use of Risk Analysis 631

    18.1 Introduction 631

    18.2 Phases in the Life Cycle 631

    18.3 Comments Applicable to all Phases 634

    18.4 Feasibility and Concept Selection 635

    18.5 Preliminary Design 637

    18.6 Detailed Design and Construction 639

    18.7 Operation and Maintenance 641

    18.8 Major Modifications 641

    18.9 Decommissioning and Removal 643

    18.10 Problems 643

    References 643

    19 Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis 645

    19.1 Introduction 645

    19.2 Uncertainty 647

    19.3 Categories of Uncertainty 648

    19.4 Contributors to Uncertainty 651

    19.5 Uncertainty Propagation 656

    19.6 Sensitivity Analysis 661

    19.7 Problems 663

    References 664

    20 Development and Applications of Risk Assessment 667

    20.1 Introduction 667

    20.2 Defense and Defense Industry 668

    20.3 Nuclear Power Industry 670

    20.4 Process Industry 674

    20.5 Offshore Oil and Gas Industry 678

    20.6 Space Industry 681

    20.7 Aviation 683

    20.8 Railway Transport 685

    20.9 Marine Transport 686

    20.10 Machinery Systems 689

    20.11 Food Safety 690

    20.12 Other Application Areas 692

    20.13 Closure 695

    References 697

    Appendix A Elements of Probability Theory 701

    A.1 Introduction 701

    A.2 Outcomes and Events 701

    A.3 Probability 706

    A.4 Random Variables 710

    A.5 Some Specific Distributions 718

    A.6 Point and Interval Estimation 728

    A.7 Bayesian Approach 732

    A.8 Probability of Frequency Approach 733

    References 739

    Appendix B Acronyms 741

    Author Index 747

    Subject Index 753